Esteemed Forbes Magazine and The Brookings Institute Report Texas Leads U.S. Metros in Recovery
Beneath the constant drumbeat of headline numbers emanating from Washington on U.S. jobs, national unemployment, GDP, and home prices lies a complex, diverse set of 366 metropolitan economies.
While no metro area has been immune from the current economic downturn, the pain is unevenly distributed. Some have felt only modest effects, and a few show early signs of recovery.
Metro areas in New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana—have performed relatively well, experiencing less severe job losses, relatively large wage gains, and modest home price increases. Specializations in energy and government, large amounts of federal hurricane recovery funding for the Gulf Coast, and smaller increases in housing prices during the early and mid-2000s may all help to account for their better performance.
The recession has had highly varied impacts on different metropolitan areas, even within the same broad regions of the country. From the beginning of 2008 through the beginning of 2009, home prices fell by 30.6 percent in Stockton but rose by 4.7 percent in Houston.
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Forbes Magazine also reports that several Texas cities are poised for a quick recovery from the national recession.
"The three most important things in real estate: location, location, location.
It's true for recovery from a real estate bubble too. Overall, many economists expect the national economy to return to growth later in 2009, perhaps as soon as this summer. But that won't be the case everywhere. While some cities are poised for a quick rebound, others face a slog to recovery that could take years.
Poised for swift recovery are many Texas cities, such as Austin, San Antonio, Dallas and McAllen. These areas did not see the massive real estate bubble that formed in states like California, Nevada and Florida. The economy is diverse, with heavy growth coming from education and health care in recent years."
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Forbes Summary of the leading Texas Metros
Austin-Round Rock, Texas
(Best Poised for Recovery)
Current GDP: $72.4 billion
End of 2010: $77.7 billion (projected)
From now to the end of 2010, the economy of Austin is projected to grow by $5 billion, and unemployment has stayed relatively subdued. The city's diverse economy, home to Dell, the University of Texas and the Texas state government, has kept the economy strong. Forbes.com also recently ranked Austin the Best Big City for Jobs.
San Antonio, Texas
Current GDP: $66.3 billion
End of 2010: $68.4 billion (projected)
San Antonio's rapidly growing health care and education sectors have kept unemployment low in San Antonio. Moody's projects recession will not entirely pass the Alamo by, but the GDP of the city will barely dip before returning to growth in the third quarter of this year.
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas
Current GDP: $274.6 billion
End of 2010: $287.9 billion (projected)
A combination of technology companies like Texas Instruments, communications firms like AT&T and energy companies like TXU (the subject of a $45 billion leveraged buyout in 2007), and the generally strong Texas economy, mean that Dallas is on firm footing for recovery. According to the much-watched Case-Shiller index of home prices, real estate in Dallas has fallen less from its peak than any of the other 19 cities tracked by the index.
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas
Current GDP: $15.6 billion
End of 2010: $16.6 billion (projected)
The McAllen region was ranked the best medium-sized city for jobs in the country. Its job growth sectors have been government, education and health care, which are unlikely to be going anywhere |
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