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Sixty Percent of the USA is Not having a Major Housing Crisis
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Sixty Percent of the USA is not having a major housing crisis - Texas Leads the Nation

Texas, the 11th largest economy in the world, leads the nation in housing performance. The rapidly growing resort and retirement centers along the Texas coast continue to have the most intense housing development in the US.

This is followed closely by the major Texas metros, including Houston - the world's leading export and energy metro area.

Texas housing market is far better off than many other parts of the country, reports the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

The Texas economy is expanding at a moderate pace and continues to outperform the national average. Certain sectors of the Texas economy are showing signs of weakness, yet the overall effects have been mitigated by strength in exports and the energy sector. With 40% of the National Housing Markets in crisis and tighter mortgages standards, the Texas housing markets saw further deterioration in sales and construction in the second quarter. According to the Dallas Beige Book.

Yet, despite the national "gloom and doom" news, the Texas economy and market fundamentals are so strong, the "news induced fear" has only managed to slow us down. We continue to grow and appreciate in value.

On a brighter note, the Texas housing market is better off than other parts of the country and Home prices are holding up in Texas.

The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) purchase-only home price index showed positive appreciation of 2.5 percent in Texas during the first quarter, compared with a decline of 3.1 percent nationally.
In addition, Texas home inventories remain near equilibrium levels, and the foreclosure rate in Texas is below the national average.

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Even though it's sunny in the lone star state,

"Misery sells newspapers. Thank God the economy is not as bad as you read in the newspaper every day." - John McCain's top economic advisor, Phil Gramm

Gramm states that economic growth has held up at about one percent despite all the publicity of a recession, recent headlines in such respected newspapers as the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and USA TODAY have confirmed his theory that "misery sells newspapers":

• Home Prices In May Took A Steep Fall (online. WSJ.com)
• Home Builders Post Steep Losses as Value of Unsold Land Slips (NYTimes.com)
• Home Builder Sentiment, So. California Home Prices Crumble (USA Today)

Newspapers are reporting that the housing market and home values are in a free fall.
However, is the nation's ENTIRE housing market really in shambles?

"I don't believe we are headed into a recession. I believe the fundamentals of this economy are strong, and I believe they will remain strong. This is a rough patch, but I believe America's greatness lies ahead of us." - John McCain, January 25, 2008.

The "economic recession" that the United States faces is portrayed in the media as being brought upon by the rising cost of oil and the "burst bubble" in the housing market. There is no denying that the cost of oil stands at record levels. But while the bubble has burst on the housing market, is it really still a nationwide problem?

During a March 25, 2008 speech regarding the economy, Sen. McCain cited the many factors that created the housing bubble:
"Between 2001 and 2006, housing prices rose by nearly 15 percent every single year. Normal market forces of people buying and selling homes were overrun by rampant speculation. Our system of market checks and balances didnt correct until the bubble burst.

A sustained period of rising home prices made many home lenders complacent, giving them a false sense of security and causing them to lower their lending standards."

While lenders violated the basic rule of banking - "don't lend money to people who can't pay it back" - only 55 million of the 80 million homes in the U.S. have a mortgage. Of those 55 million mortgage owners, 51 million are cutting back on spending and doing what's necessary to make their payments on time.

"HOW COULD 4 MILLION MORTGAGES OUT OF 80 MILLION HOMES CAUSE THIS MUCH TROUBLE FOR ALL AMERICANS?"

While home values did fall as the bubble burst, the media continues to report constant drops across the nation in national home values. Can this be true? Could four million bad mortgages cause the entire nation to see long-term losses in their home value?
Recent published research says "no."

Why 60% of the US Should Stop Worrying About Their Home Values

From the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, May 22, 2008
The Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) released their House Price Index (HPI) in May with some significant findings. The HPI includes data from home sales AND appraisals for refinancing, two critical measures in determining nationwide home values. According to findings in the HPI:

• Only 15 states saw a negative home value price change in the first quarter of 2008 when compared to the first quarter of 2007.
• Of the 20 ranked cities with the greatest price declines over the latest four quarters, all but one were in California or Florida.
• Of the 292 cities on OFHEO's list of "ranked" MSAs, 164 had positive quarterly appreciation.

According to estimates compiled from the Census Bureau, approximately 37.5% of the nation's population live in the 15 states currently affected by declining home values. Therefore, 62.5% of the U.S. population actually witnessed a POSITIVE price change (or negligible loss) in home values during the first quarter (January through March) of 2008, when compared to the same time period in 2007.

The four states that showed the greatest drop in four quarter price change were California, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida.
Unless you are a citizen of one of those states, chances are good your home value actually increased over the past year.
The falling home values in 30% of the country are causing the "gloom and doom" home value projections reported by all major media outlets.

Just because the housing market in 15 states is still trying to regulate itself, it doesn't mean the entire market will continue to take the plunge. According to PMI Mortgage Insurance Company's "Economic & Real Estate Trends" report for Summer 2008, 58 percent of the nation's 381 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) experienced positive rates of house price appreciation during the first quarter. When MSAs located in California, Florida, Nevada, and Arizona are removed from PMI's calculations, almost 68% of the nation's 322 remaining MSAs experienced positive appreciation during the quarter.

PMI's report also measures the probability that house prices in a particular MSA will decrease over the next two years with a statistic called "Risk Index." In the nation's top 50 MSAs, 24 saw a drop in their Risk Index during the first quarter of 2008 when compared to the fourth quarter of 2007.

Another positive finding in the PMI report includes 21 of the nation's top 50 MSAs maintaining a positive price appreciation for the second consecutive quarter.

Perhaps some economists will be right in their projections that the full effects from the "burst bubble" of the housing market will not be realized until sometime in 2009.

For nearly 63% of Americans, however, the worst of the "housing crisis" seems to be over. In late July, economists were not ready to call a bottom, but positive signs began to show for home sales and home values.

While the debate rolls on about whether or not "misery sells newspapers," no one questions the validity of statistics. The Census Bureau reported July 25 that while June sales of new homes were down from 2007, they still came in 25,000 units higher than expected.

Don't Listen to the News... If You Can't Handle the News Is this "recession" in the housing market nothing more than a mental recession, leading to a self-fulfilling prophecy?

Dr. Stephen Worchel, a social psychologist at the University of Hawaii-Hilo, believes so. In an article written by Amy Novotney in the May issue of Monitor On Psychology magazine, Worchel opines that things like 24-hour news coverage can create concerns about the country's economic issues, causing fear, tighter budgets, and reduced spending.

The one good sign? "Fear is such a strong emotion that it doesn't last very long," said Dr. Worchel. "There's a recognition that we can't continue to live this way," and the economy will begin to readjust.

So the next time you grab a newspaper to get your housing market news, make sure you consider the source.
"Misery sells newspapers," and they can create fear if you let them. Statistics don't lie. Stick to the numbers.

Comments

By NAR @ Sunday, August 17, 2008

Big Gain in Pending Home Sales Index

Some improvement is projected for existing-home sales in the months ahead, with broader gains seen by the fourth quarter as buyers take advantage of new provisions provided through the recently passed housing stimulus bill, according to the latest forecast by the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in June, rose 5.3 percent.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said sales have been in a pattern of rising and falling within a fairly narrow range. “The vacillation of data from one month to the next indicates a housing market in transition,” he said. “The rise in pending home sales was broad-based with all four regions showing gains.

This is welcome news because a rise in contract activity is necessary for an overall housing recovery. With a tax credit now available to first-time home buyers, increases in home sales could be sustained with the momentum carrying into 2009.”

NAR President Richard F. Gaylord said the housing stimulus package will provide long-term relief. “Provisions to stem foreclosures are helpful, but a greater lift to the economy should come from higher mortgage limits, enhancements to the FHA loan program and the first-time home buyer tax credit,” he said.

“These are excellent tools that will help buyers get into the market to take advantage of the unprecedented drop in home prices in many areas, as well as a wide selection of inventory, to make an investment in their future,” Gaylord said.

With roughly 2.5 million first-time home buyers taking advantage of the temporary tax credit, existing-home sales are likely to rise 7.0 percent to 5.51 million in 2009 from a expected total of 5.15 million this year.

Yun said home prices did not fall as much as anticipated in the second quarter. “Buyers entering the hardest-hit markets, in some cases with multiple-bid offers, may have put a floor on prices,” he said. “In addition, rising commodity prices and higher construction costs have resulted in a very unusual market today with existing-home prices being less than replacement building costs in some areas. Home prices are projected to increase 3 to 6 percent in 2009.”

“Builders need to further cut production to help trim inventory. However, new-home sales are expected to bottom around the second quarter of next year with slight gains in the second half of 2009,” Yun said.

New-home sales are forecast to drop 8.8 percent to 464,000 in 2009 from 509,000 this year. Housing starts, including multifamily units, should fall 8.8 percent next year to 795,000 from 960,000 in 2008.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which also has been vacillating, is likely to trend up to 6.5 percent by the end of 2008, and then hold at that level for most of next year.

NAR’s housing affordability index is forecast to remain favorable this year, averaging 13 percentage points higher than in 2007.

Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to be 1.7 percent this year and 1.5 percent in 2009.

By AUSTIN – Gov Perry's Office @ Monday, August 18, 2008

Texas’ Business Climate Ranked No.1 by Corporate Executives

State Tops Development Counsellors International Poll for Fourth Consecutive Time

Corporate executives ranked Texas’ business climate best in the nation for the fourth consecutive time according to a survey conducted by Development Counsellors International (DCI), an economic development and tourism marketing firm. The survey measures CEO’s perception of a state’s business climate based on several economic variables.
“Texas is far and away the best place in America to do business,” Gov. Perry said. “Business leaders throughout the world recognize the Lone Star State as a place where their business can grow and thrive thanks to our reasonable regulations, low taxes, fair legal environment, educated workforce and an unparalleled quality of life.”

DCI surveyed 281 executives in charge of site selection for various sized companies. Texas gained 40.8 percent of the top votes, which named a favorable tax climate, workforce cost and availability, and pro-business climate as the top features influencing positive perception.

DCI has conducted the survey every three years since its inception in 1996.

Overall, the Texas economy continues to grow at nearly three times the national average. CNBC recently named Texas America’s Top State for Business and overall best economy. Texas was also recently recognized by CEO magazine as the Best State to do Business for the third year in a row, and is now home to more fortune 500 companies than any other state in the nation. Last year, more than half of all new jobs created in the United States were created in Texas.

“Knowledge and capital are rapidly being deployed to parts of the world where the right combination of talent, technology, business climate, infrastructure and markets converge. I believe Texas is that place, now more than ever,” said Gov. Perry.

By Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas @ Monday, August 25, 2008

Richard W. Fisher, president and chief executive of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

The national economy is weak. ... [But] the benefit of being in Texas is

• We will have positive employment growth, somewhere in between 1 ½ and 2 percent.

• We didn't have an overpriced housing stock.

• We benefit from significant immigration, not just from across the border, but from foreign countries like California and Florida.

By Forbes.com, Matt Woolsey @ Thursday, August 28, 2008

10 Cities Where Jobs, Home Prices Are Growing

To determine where home prices are expected to rise most in the next couple of years, Forbes.com looked at projections for housing starts from the National Association of Home Builders and job-growth projections from Moody’s Economy.com.

Forbes identified cities that are likely to be vibrant markets because jobs are increasing and the housing market wasn’t overbuilt during the boom.

"The logic is pretty straightforward," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "People will spend as much on housing as their income will allow them. House prices are very closely tied to household income over the long run when you look at business cycles."

According to Forbes, these are the 10 cities where home prices are most likely to rise:
Albuquerque, N.M.
Charlotte, N.C.
San Antonio, Texas
Portland, Ore.
Austin, Texas
Salt Lake City, Utah
Colorado Springs, Colo.
Minneapolis
Atlanta
Oklahoma City

By Jim Haughey Reed Construction Data @ Saturday, August 30, 2008

Economic growth is now rising only in eleven states, led by Texas with a 3.3% annual growth pace.

The only other large states that are still expanding are Colorado, New York, Connecticut, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Wisconsin is the lone state with faster economic growth in the last three months (through July) than in the previous year.

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